UDIA RECENTLY RELEASED OUR “URBAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX” WHICH IS A SURVEY OF OVER EIGHTY DEVELOPMENTS. THE SURVEY COVERS AN ENORMOUS VARIETY OF INFORMATION BUT THE DATA THAT EVERYBODY LOOKS TO FIRST IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOTS FOR SALE OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.
The simple answer is yes, the industry is continuing to ramp up supply but the stock of lots on the market has fallen nearly ten percent (9.7%). But that fall is not evenly distributed across Perth and Peel.
UDIA Chief Economist, Tim Connoley, says that in the North-West metropolitan corridor sales have risen 10.4% to make that area the sales winner this quarter with a 26.9% share of the sales. Sales volumes in the corridor have been running at above average levels since the start of 2012 with September quarter levels up 34% on the five year average.
Strong sales growth has led to the stock on the market declining faster than the Perth average over the last three months. Current stock represented just 4.3 weeks’ worth of sales with projects averaging less than 14 lots on the market as of the 30th September. Developers are responding to demand with the forecast new lots jumping 77% in comparison to the June survey.
Alkimos is currently the most popular suburb in the corridor for new land sales with 247 lots settled over the last twelve months according to Landgate data. Yanchep has also been a strong seller in 2013 and, with a median lot price of $205,500, it is one of Perth’s most affordable coastal locations. Popular first home buyer destination, Butler, tops the affordability stakes in Perth’s North-Western Corridor with the average house and land package sitting at just $358,000.
In the North East corridor sales jumped to 65% above the five year average with seven projects recording sales increases of more than 20%. Dayton led the sales in that corridor with 188 lots and a median size of 270sqm. Other popular locations included neighbouring suburbs of Ellenbrook and Aveley. Stock levels in the City of Swan have declined by 35% but the number of lots expected to be brought to the market over the next 12 months is more than double the September 2012 level.
The market north of the river is strong and likely to remain so with the developers continuing to deliver the required lots to the market. We will look south of the river next week.