Team UDIA WA is delighted to advise that the ‘New Dwelling Supply Snapshot’ dashboard is now live and available for member access via UDIA Housing Monitor – UDIA WA. The new interactive dashboard is the latest build-out component of our UDIA WA Research & Insights Portal which we launched earlier this year.
The New Dwelling Supply Snapshot dashboard has been designed to provide a clear rolling snapshot of how the latest quarterly housing supply metrics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics measure up against the National Housing Accord’s housing targets, and against long run averages.
The new supply dashboard allows for user-defined reporting geography, and historical delivery timeframes. It has been designed to provide a quick reference of how State, Territory and National quarterly volumes of residential approvals, commencements and completions are tracking against the required supply run-rate to achieve the full five-year Accord Target – as well as how the latest volumes stack-up against the Accord targets on an average quarterly basis.
The current Snapshot highlights that despite Western Australia maintaining near record levels of housing under construction, the completed stock levels have remained well below the quarterly Accord target levels, and are continuing to decline quarter on quarter.
Indeed, since the Accord period commenced in the September quarter 2024 (and through to the March Quarter 2026) there have been zero quarters of dwelling completions reaching the required Accord quarterly statewide volume of 6,450 completions.
The cumulative dwelling supply shortfall for Western Australia over the seven quarters to March 2026 is -7,838 which is similar to Victoria’s current cumulative deficit (-8,631), and South Australia (-6,428), but significantly less than QLD (-27,058) and NSW (-53,725).
One macro economic approach to forecasting when the National Accord new house target for each State and Territory and for Australia will be achieved, is to extrapolate the average quarterly production rate achieved over the completed quarters since September 2024 until the entire WA Accord target of 129,000 dwellings is reached. On this basis UDIA estimates it would not be until the June Quarter 2030 that the full Western Australian Accord target of 129,000 will be reached – a full four quarters later than set by the Accord target for June 2029.
The housing market slow-down evidenced across various indicators Statewide suggests that modelling on the basis of long run average production levels maybe problematic. Recent analysis produced from the UDIA National Housing Pipeline® (NHP) project indicated that there is a significant amount of zoned land for forward supply with development constraints which will significantly reduce medium and longer term production capacity across Greater Perth – which is where the bulk of new housing will be developed. Harnessing development site intelligence and developer intentions to inform pipeline estimates, UDIA’s NHP reporting indicates that the 129,000 Accord dwelling target is more likely to be achieved in 2031 or 2032 based on all the available evidence.
While UDIA WA is broadly supportive of the raft of policy reforms and initiatives currently being executed by the State Government to boost forward housing supply, the reality is many of these reforms will be a ‘slow-burn’ and not likely influence forward production capacity in a significant way until post the Accord period. Accordingly, UDIA WA will continue to work closely with all levels of government and across industry to help bring forward new housing supply in the most efficient and cost-effective means possible – right across the housing continuum.
The UDIA WA Research Team welcomes Member feedback on this ‘New Dwelling Supply Snapshot’ dashboard and the further evolution of the Urban Intelligence Chart Pack. Feel free to reach out and get in touch!
Warm regards,
Toby Adams, Head of Research (UDIA WA and National)