The state’s population growth in 2012 in both aggregate and percentage terms was unprecedented in recent history – increasing by 83,000 or 3.47 per cent.
The biggest source of new Western Australians was, of course, net migration, which is the balance of people migrating here minus people migrating overseas or interstate. Net migration reached not only a record 1,200 people each week, but also a record proportion of our population increase (75.5 per cent) – surpassed perhaps only by levels in the 1890s, when the discovery of gold near Kalgoorlie attracted a rush of eager migrants keen to make their fortunes.
Net overseas migration (NOM) was again the largest component of migration in 2012, contributing 52,000 people in 2012. But there is an important distinction contained in this number: it is comprised of both permanent migration or settlement and long-term movements (LTM).
In the 80s and 90s, the majority of NOM was capped permanent settlement (upwards of 90 per cent in some years). But this is no longer the case. Like the rest of Australia, net LTM became the dominate source of NOM in WA around the middle of last decade. This change was largely attributable to policy changes at the national level that encouraged foreign students and workers to enter the country through the uncapped temporary migration program rather than the capped permanent migration program.
The ratio of net LTM to net permanent migrants changed from one-to-nine in the 80s, reaching one-to-one in 04/05 and strengthening further to two-to-one in 08/09. Rather than permanent migration and births and deaths driving population growth, WA has got to a point where population growth has been significantly inflated by substantial increases in overseas students, long-term business migrants (i.e. 457 visas) and visitors that intend – that is, they put it on their visa form when they enter the country – to stay in the country for a continuous 12 months.
These strong inflows of population through the uncapped temporary migration program have further complicated population forecasting and the development of a coherent population policy. Estimates from the Bureau of Statistics and the WA State Government have continually underestimated this state’s population growth in recent years. And now that the temporary-to-permanent transition is a significant feature of Australia’s migration program, it is hard to have much faith in current forecasts. According to the latest ABS forecasts, Western Australia’s population will grow at between 0.6 and 1.9 per cent per annum over the next nine years, which is well down from current levels. Meanwhile, the State Government published forecasts last year that put growth rates at between 1.1 and 1.9 per cent over the same time period.
It is likely that the state will be able to retain a large – but unknown – portion of the relatively young and skilled 32,000 transient workers on 457 visas and 23,000 foreign students residing in the state. Historically, a third of 457 visa holders transition to permanent residency and consequently their families also move to Australia. But without an increase in the permanent migration cap, there is the possibility that we could see a growing backlog of people living and working in WA who want to become residents, but for whom there is no room in the annual residency quota.